Climate
change is one of the most pressing issues for mankind in the 21st
century. This problem is primarily due to human use of fossil fuels which releases
compounds like CO2 and CH4. These gases absorb and emit
infrared radiation which warms the earth in what is called the greenhouse
effect. Since humans are releasing massive amounts of greenhouse gases, the
amount and rate of warming is rapidly increasing. This will most likely lead to
massive consequences for mankind like increased sea level, extreme weather
events, and hotter summers.
An article published earlier this
year by the Guardian, “Extreme weather already on increase due to climate change, study finds”, focuses on the effects of global warming to precipitation
and heat wave patterns. The author drew his information from a study published
in Nature Climate Change. The Guardian article starts off by linking recent
increases in heat waves and heavy rain to climate change. It talks about the
0.85 Celsius increase in temperature from the start of the industrial age to
today, which has resulted in extreme weather events happening 5 times more than
before. The article also mentions the danger of higher increases in temperature,
which the world seems on track to follow because of the continued use of fossil
fuels. The rest of the piece focuses on the modeling of future extreme weather
events and its link to human causes.
The study in which the Guardian
article is based on goes into more detail regarding modeling future extreme
weather. It uses probability ratio (PR) and FAR which determines the changed
factor of extreme weather events occurring and the percent of these
attributable to humans. The study also uses a global model which shows
variability in climate and extreme weather events. The data shows that as
temperature increases the FAR and PR ratio increase nonlinearly for extreme
heat waves and heavy precipitation. The data also shows that overall
precipitation can decrease while extreme precipitation events increase in
certain circumstances. The last subject the study broaches is the uncertainty
of the models that they are using and the methods they used to decrease it like
looking at things globally.
 |
| Figure 3 from study which shows probability ratio (PR) |
The article did a pretty good job in
communicating the major details from the study. For example, the author notes
that the attribution of extreme weather events to climate change is a
complicated issue. However, I thought that the author could have stated even
more clearly that you could not link one extreme weather event directly to only
human causes. The author could have also explained FAR to explain attribution
science into more detail. Other than that the article did a good job in noting
the variability of extreme weather events across the globe and mentions that
some places will be more vulnerable to these occurrences.
Overall, I thought the Guardian
article did a good job in representing the material from the study. I was
especially pleased of how the article did not go into the political sphere with
any comments.
Guardian
Article
Nature
Climate Change article
or
http://www.lib.umich.edu/articles/search?kw=Anthropogenic%20contribution%20to%20global%20occurrence%20of%20heavy-precipitation%20and%20high-temperature%20extremes
(click on first article)
I think a lot of the time people do not think to associate extreme weather with climate change. Also, I think part of the reason why some people deny the existence of global warming is due to the extreme weather associated with climate change. When an extreme winter storm occurs, people will claim global warming does not exist. Part of their problem may be not understanding the difference between climate change and global warming, which are often used interchangeably in popular media.
ReplyDeleteAccording to NASA: "Global warming refers to surface temperature increases, while climate change includes global warming and everything else that increasing greenhouse gas amounts will affect."
I would say most climate skeptics just say that this extreme weather is just natural variation rather than something ultimately influenced by mankind. They also say that models used by scientists are not reliable. I think discourse must continue if we want to convince some of these people. I am not sure how it should happen.
ReplyDeleteGood post, I thought the guardian article was good at portraying the possible consequences of temperature increases due to greenhouse gas emissions however they failed to mention that the data was based on a modeling study which is misleading to the reader.
ReplyDeleteYeah, they did not mention that future increases were based on modeling. I think that was a result of the author trying to be brief instead of going into the inner workings of the paper, but it should have been mentioned.
DeletePertaining to Theresa's comment about the lack of notification about the modeling study, I have a feeling that the author may have left that out because the general public readers may dismiss the information for this reason. A modeling study performed with calculations and programs is less believable to those not familiar with the science behind the issue. I disagree with the author's choice to do this, since the information is then somewhat misleading but in the very least the author's choice in topic brings up a good topic of conversation for the general public to look in to.
ReplyDelete