Extreme heatwaves could push Gulf climate beyond human endurance, study shows
A recent news article published in The Guardian by Damian Carrington highlights a study published in Nature Climate Change on the future habitability of the Arabian Gulf. The climate study examined the influence of climate change from greenhouse gasses on the region. The Guardian article ends with an additional contribution from Guardian Middle East reporter Kareem Shaheen focusing on current living conditions of living in Dubai.
The scientific study is motivated by the need for additional resolution on global climate model projections. To accomplish this, the study focused on the Arabian Gulf with a model of a resolution step size of 25-km grid spacing. Using modeling techniques bench-marked for the region, the study effectively added 30 points of measurement for each one point used in global models for increased resolution. Using a measure reflecting the humidity and temperature of the region, wet-bulb temperature (TW), a direct relationship to a human body's core temperature and survival limits (35 C for 6 hours) were used to assess habitability of the region.
The study presents three cases of TW in the Gulf to illustrate their point; a historical TW, mitigated anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (RCP4.5), and "business-as-usual" greenhouse gas emissions (RCP8.5). With the current "business-as-usual" model, high TW are obtained for cities on the Arabian Gulf that have southeast winds blowing hot humid air blowing into them including Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Doha. The study warns of temperature increases in the region would reach extremes hazardous to human health, particularly the to "the weakest-namely children and the elderly." The authors do stress the implications of the higher temperatures in other regions of the Middle East such as on the Red Sea coast and warn of the potential health concerns to the Muslim ritual of Hajj that includes annually ~ 2 million pilgrims praying outdoors from sunrise to sunset. The authors of the study emphasize that with mitigated release of greenhouse gases, a smaller increase in TW is obtained.
The Nature Climate Change article admits in their conclusion that the economic benefits of an oil producing nation provide benefits that allow for more human adaptive processes to combat the health consequences of heating (ie air conditioners). They do warn that under these conditions even the most "basic outdoor activities are likely to be severely impacted." The Nature Climate Change authors do highlight the greater risk for areas not benefiting from oil production, such as coastal Yemen. The authors compare the future climate of the region to the African land portion of the Red Sea, which due to harsh climate has no permanent human settlements.
Figure 1: Spatial distributions of extreme wet bulb temperature and extreme temperature.
a–f, Ensemble average of the 30-year maximum TWmax (a–c) and Tmax (d–f) temperatures for each GHG scenario: historical (a,d), RCP4.5 (b,e) and RCP8.5 (c,f). Averages for the domain excluding the buffer zone (DOM), land excluding the buffer zone (LND) and the Arabian Peninsula (AP) are indicated in each plot. TWmax and Tmax are the maximum daily values averaged over a 6-h window.
Interesting articles, Jim. I do agree that the Guardian definitely sensationalized the Nature Climate Change article, especially in noting that the region "will suffer heatwaves beyond the limit of human survival if climate change" without any qualifying statements. Nature notes an important limitation of their projections, which was omitted from the Guardian post: "Although observations and model simulations largely support this global climate change hypothesis, more research efforts are needed to improve understanding of impacts at regional and local scales." Nevertheless, I found that the Guardian overall did good justice in conveying the remainder of the article. I also enjoyed the first hand account from Kareem Shaeen on how living conditions have changed notably.
Nice summary, Jim! I'd have to say that I echo the remarks both you and Ann made about some of the over-emphasis in the article. However, I think that Carrington did an excellent job outlining the research within his article and not just throwing blatant and over-generalized facts from the paper at his audience. I appreciate his ability to take information from the paper and make it more accessible to a general audience, which I felt he did with explaining the model and the wet-bulb temperature.
That being said, I think the combination of the personal experience of a citizen of the Gulf area hits the article home, something that not many scientific papers are able to do (in my personal opinion). Incorporating the personal, real-life side of the changes in the Gulf would likely make a bigger impact on a much larger number of people and create more action in lowering CO2 emissions.
It's a good summary. It reminds me a movie in which workers in Dubai are exposed under the blistering sun but rich people enjoy their life indoor with air conditioner. I think poor people will suffer more from that kind of worse environment.
For anyone interested, Slate.com published a piece that was highly critical of other news outlets that reported on this scientific publication. Many more sensationalized headlines appeared yesterday and Slate was there to take them down a peg or five.
Very interesting article, I find it interesting that Kareem brings the research of climate change in the Middle East and ties it in with a person that grew up in the Middle East. Mainly how a persons life is affected around religious holidays and day to day life of hoping around air conditioned buildings. The nature climate change article also highlights many of the day to day life factors that tie in with people from the region with relevant research data correlating to certain parts of the year that people would typically be outside.
Nice post Jim. I don't have any strong feelings about this article, although it is nice to see a more humanitarian aspect in a high-impact journal article.
The Arabian Gulf was obviously the right geographical location to do a study like this seeing how that area sees high temperatures on a regular basis and they have a high capacity for oil production, but I would be interested to see these kind of studies on other geographical locations.
Great post. I too am pleased with the Guardian article and how well it portrays the original study, and especially how it adds socioeconomic context to the scientific predictions. The personal account gives a perspective that I think non-technical audiences would appreciate more.
Was there any commentary on how extreme the change in this region of the world is in comparison to other regions of the world? Why was the study focused on this region as opposed to other regions with higher population density?
I thought it was really interesting how the Guardian stressed the competing economic benefit for supporting global warming measures. It's ironic that the very thing that could keep them in the region (the oil that provides the wealth to air condition their lives) is also the thing pushing them out.
Interesting articles, Jim. I do agree that the Guardian definitely sensationalized the Nature Climate Change article, especially in noting that the region "will suffer heatwaves beyond the limit of human survival if climate change" without any qualifying statements. Nature notes an important limitation of their projections, which was omitted from the Guardian post: "Although observations and model simulations largely support this global climate change hypothesis, more research efforts are needed to improve understanding of impacts at regional and local scales." Nevertheless, I found that the Guardian overall did good justice in conveying the remainder of the article. I also enjoyed the first hand account from Kareem Shaeen on how living conditions have changed notably.
ReplyDeleteNice summary, Jim! I'd have to say that I echo the remarks both you and Ann made about some of the over-emphasis in the article. However, I think that Carrington did an excellent job outlining the research within his article and not just throwing blatant and over-generalized facts from the paper at his audience. I appreciate his ability to take information from the paper and make it more accessible to a general audience, which I felt he did with explaining the model and the wet-bulb temperature.
ReplyDeleteThat being said, I think the combination of the personal experience of a citizen of the Gulf area hits the article home, something that not many scientific papers are able to do (in my personal opinion). Incorporating the personal, real-life side of the changes in the Gulf would likely make a bigger impact on a much larger number of people and create more action in lowering CO2 emissions.
It's a good summary. It reminds me a movie in which workers in Dubai are exposed under the blistering sun but rich people enjoy their life indoor with air conditioner. I think poor people will suffer more from that kind of worse environment.
ReplyDeleteFor anyone interested, Slate.com published a piece that was highly critical of other news outlets that reported on this scientific publication. Many more sensationalized headlines appeared yesterday and Slate was there to take them down a peg or five.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/10/27/climate_change_heat_waves_won_t_make_persian_gulf_uninhabitable.html
Very interesting article, I find it interesting that Kareem brings the research of climate change in the Middle East and ties it in with a person that grew up in the Middle East. Mainly how a persons life is affected around religious holidays and day to day life of hoping around air conditioned buildings. The nature climate change article also highlights many of the day to day life factors that tie in with people from the region with relevant research data correlating to certain parts of the year that people would typically be outside.
ReplyDeleteNice post Jim. I don't have any strong feelings about this article, although it is nice to see a more humanitarian aspect in a high-impact journal article.
ReplyDeleteThe Arabian Gulf was obviously the right geographical location to do a study like this seeing how that area sees high temperatures on a regular basis and they have a high capacity for oil production, but I would be interested to see these kind of studies on other geographical locations.
Great post. I too am pleased with the Guardian article and how well it portrays the original study, and especially how it adds socioeconomic context to the scientific predictions. The personal account gives a perspective that I think non-technical audiences would appreciate more.
ReplyDeleteWas there any commentary on how extreme the change in this region of the world is in comparison to other regions of the world? Why was the study focused on this region as opposed to other regions with higher population density?
ReplyDeleteI thought it was really interesting how the Guardian stressed the competing economic benefit for supporting global warming measures. It's ironic that the very thing that could keep them in the region (the oil that provides the wealth to air condition their lives) is also the thing pushing them out.
ReplyDelete